Boise St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	50.0
Current RPI:	50
Expected SOS:	124
Current SOS:	124
Current Record:	22-8
Expected Record:	22-8
Current Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC RPI:	58
Expected OOC SOS:	210

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-8	50.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boise St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	90-69	W	100%
11-16	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	N	56-58	W	100%
11-17	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	N	82-64	W	100%
11-19	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	N	75-64	L	0%
11-25	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	68-48	W	100%
11-28	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	H	87-53	W	100%
12-1	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	70-73	W	100%
12-3	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	77-54	W	100%
12-9	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	77-54	W	100%
12-13	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	H	85-80	W	100%
12-18	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	86-63	L	0%
12-27	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	93-71	W	100%
12-30	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	74-83	W	100%
1-3	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	90-62	W	100%
1-6	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	79-78	L	0%
1-9	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	64-70	W	100%
1-13	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	83-80	W	100%
1-17	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	71-67	W	100%
1-20	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	74-68	L	0%
1-24	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	94-71	W	100%
1-27	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	64-70	W	100%
2-3	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	93-91	W	100%
2-6	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	71-73	W	100%
2-10	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	71-65	L	0%
2-14	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	72-77	L	0%
2-17	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	76-52	W	100%
2-21	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	54-87	W	100%
2-27	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	72-64	L	0%
3-3	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	95-87	W	100%
3-8	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	N	75-78	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boise St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Boise St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Boise St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Boise St.	MWC	26.31	26.31	74.60	74.60	12.95	12.95
Utah St.	MWC	5.84	5.84	46.67	46.67	-0.39	-0.39
New Mexico	MWC	4.34	4.34	58.06	58.06	0.70	0.70
UNLV	MWC	4.26	4.26	64.52	64.52	1.24	1.24
Nevada	MWC	4.26	4.26	78.12	78.12	2.39	2.39
San Diego St.	MWC	4.25	4.25	68.97	68.97	1.61	1.61
Colorado St.	MWC	4.23	4.23	34.48	34.48	-1.31	-1.31
Wyoming	MWC	4.20	4.20	60.00	60.00	0.84	0.84
Air Force	MWC	4.17	4.17	37.04	37.04	-1.08	-1.08
San Jose St.	MWC	2.69	2.69	10.71	10.71	-2.11	-2.11
Fresno St.	MWC	2.66	2.66	65.52	65.52	0.83	0.83
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.83	1.83	17.24	17.24	-1.20	-1.20
Portland	WCC	1.81	1.81	25.00	25.00	-0.90	-0.90
Illinois St.	MVC	1.79	1.79	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Southern Utah	BSky	1.77	1.77	37.93	37.93	-0.43	-0.43
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.75	1.75	34.48	34.48	-0.54	-0.54
Oregon	P12	1.75	1.75	66.67	66.67	0.58	0.58
Loyola Chicago	MVC	1.74	1.74	87.10	87.10	1.29	1.29
UTEP	CUSA	1.72	1.72	34.48	34.48	-0.53	-0.53
Grand Canyon	WAC	1.67	1.67	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Iowa St.	B12	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
SMU	Amer	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.32	0.32	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.29	0.29	83.33	83.33	0.19	0.19
Gonzaga	WCC	0.27	0.27	88.24	88.24	0.21	0.21
Portland St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.24	0.24	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.23	0.23	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
BYU	WCC	0.21	0.21	70.59	70.59	0.09	0.09
Montana St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	60.71	60.71	0.05	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.21	0.21	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.19	0.19	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
TCU	B12	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	12.50	12.50	-0.13	-0.13
Arizona	P12	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Utah	P12	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.17	0.17	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
Idaho St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Drake	MVC	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.14	0.14	16.13	16.13	-0.10	-0.10
Denver	Sum	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Texas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
USC	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	8.00	8.00	-0.07	-0.07
California	P12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00